Epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases in a periodic environment
Người báo cáo: Khổng Văn Hải
Thời gian: 14h Thứ 5, ngày 05/10/2023
Địa điểm: Phòng 507 nhà A6
Link online Zoom: 845 8621 8812
Passcode: 123456
Tóm tắt: The talk will show some of the consequences that periodic fluctuations in the environment can have on the dynamics of infectious diseases. We illustrate these consequences in the context of a vector-borne pathogen corresponding to three different aspects of seasonality. The first aspect analyzes the persistence of a pathogen and shows how seasonality can increase or decrease the persistence of the pathogen. This first aspect is based on the analysis of a deterministic model. In the second aspect, we study the effects of seasonality on the risks of emergence. The stochastic model used is based on a relatively simple epidemiological scenario but can be generalized to models with vector transmission. We show here how the timing of treatment can have an impact on the risk of emergence (or eradication) of the epidemic. The third issue uses a third formalism, adaptive dynamics, to study the evolution of dormancy and reactivation.
